The US freight market in November 2025 is sending mixed, yet compelling signals. While demand remains soft, particularly in the traditional truckload sector, capacity is exiting the market at an accelerating pace. This is creating a subtle, but significant, shift in pricing power that favors carriers—a critical development for shippers, brokers, and fleets as we look toward 2026.
📉 Demand and Volume: An Ongoing Correction
Freight demand has been disappointing throughout the year, with the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) continuing to trend sharply below year-ago levels, down about 15% year-over-year as of mid-September. Contract Load Accepted Volume is also down significantly, showing a 15.2% year-over-year decline in accepted loads moving under contractual agreements. This softness in demand is largely a result of several macro-factors:
- Macroeconomic Headwinds: A weak labor market and subdued manufacturing sentiment are weighing on the broader economy.
- Inventory Shifts: Nonfarm private inventories were a large drag on GDP in Q2, meaning firms are trying to thread the needle with just-in-time inventory strategies after building their stocks up in Q1.
- Trade Policy Volatility: Tariffs and trade policy uncertainty have disrupted normal seasonality, with international container volumes continuing their decline since early July.
⬆️ The Unexpected Rise in Rates and Capacity Crunch
Despite the lower demand, spot rates are holding steady or even slightly increasing in some segments.
- Dry Van Spot Rates: The average dry van spot rate was $2.30/mile in August, up 2.6% year-over-year. Spot rates, excluding estimated fuel costs, were up 2-3% year over year through most of September.
- Tender Rejections (OTRI): The national tender rejection rate reached 5.24% in August. This rate continues to trend higher despite weakening demand conditions, indicating an ongoing reduction in supply-side dynamics and increased carrier responsiveness.
- Carrier Exits: Carrier exits remain elevated and are expected to continue through the winter, making the next 12 months increasingly tenuous from a sourcing standpoint.
🤝 Freight Brokers: Navigating Volatility with Precision
For freight brokers, this environment—characterized by low volumes but tighter capacity—demands extreme efficiency and precision in quoting.
- The Quoting Challenge: Relying solely on the spot market and outdated methods like spreadsheets makes it easy to lose loads and profits. Brokers must access historical data and real-time market insights to price competitively and confidently.
- The Margin Threat: For LTL shipments in particular, one missed accessorial charge or inaccurate density calculation can “blow your margin.”
- The Technology Advantage: Technology-driven solutions are essential for staying competitive.
- Focus on Relationships: The freight business is still built on strong relationships. While AI can automate tasks, human judgment is still required for handling exceptions and maintaining trust with both shippers and carriers.
🚄 Intermodal and LTL: Stability and Growth
Not all sectors are facing the same pressure.
- Domestic Intermodal: Containerized domestic intermodal volume was up 1% year over year in the past week (before mid-September) and has shown to be relatively unimpacted by this year’s import pull-forward. Intermodal remains a growth area, and shippers should re-evaluate their networks for potential cost savings.
- LTL Market: The Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) market is sending mixed signals but is somewhat insulated from the truckload sector due to its lower fragmentation. Longer-haul LTL shipments have been trending higher over the past year.
🔑 Key Takeaway for Forward Planning
The most critical development for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 is the capacity crunch.
The divergence between soft volumes and stable/rising rates suggests that the freight market is not broken, but clogged, with carriers taking a disciplined stand on pricing to ensure profitability.
What does this mean for you?
- Shippers: Expect modest rate uplift for 2026 and lock in contracts now with flexibility. Competitive pricing remains their most important attribute when selecting a transportation provider.
- Carriers/Brokers: The tightening supply creates leverage. Focus on operational efficiency and data-driven quoting to protect margins and leverage the shifting market dynamics.
The coming quarters will test the resilience of supply chain strategies. Investment in technology, particularly AI for optimization, will be key to managing costs and gaining a competitive edge.
